By By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
TAMPA — Baker Mayfield believes he has already proven that he is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ franchise quarterback.
Beginning Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati, he gets 17 games to convince the organization it can no longer afford to treat him like anything else.
Mayfield enters the season without the contract extension he wanted. He is coming off his least productive year in Tampa Bay, adjusting to another offensive coordinator and leading a team attempting to reclaim the NFC South after finishing 8-9.
It is difficult to imagine a season carrying much more personal or professional importance for a quarterback who has spent much of his career betting on himself.
Mayfield does not need to prove he belongs in the NFL.
He settled that argument after arriving in Tampa Bay in 2023.
He needs to prove his terrific 2024 season better represents the quarterback he has become than his uneven, injury-plagued 2025 performance.
He must prove he can consistently play at a level deserving of a long-term contract worth at least $50 million per season.
Mayfield is betting on himself again
Mayfield is entering the final year of the three-year, $100 million contract he signed with Tampa Bay in 2024. The deal can reach $115 million through incentives.
He will earn $40 million this season, consisting of a $10 million base salary and a $30 million roster bonus. His salary-cap number is approximately $39.98 million.
The Buccaneers and Mayfield discussed an extension during the offseason but failed to reach an agreement before his self-imposed deadline at the beginning of training camp.
Mayfield then announced that negotiations would stop until the season ended.
According to ESPN, the Buccaneers offered Mayfield a two-year extension worth slightly more than $100 million.
Mayfield wanted a longer commitment, stronger guarantees, and an average salary that placed him among the quarterbacks earning more than $50 million annually.
“That’s really the disappointing part—to feel undervalued after thinking you’ve earned it,” Mayfield said at the time.
The disagreement appeared to involve more than the total value. Mayfield was reportedly dissatisfied with the guaranteed money and the organization’s willingness to commit for only two additional seasons.
“I think I’m a franchise quarterback,” Mayfield said. “I’ve been told I’m a franchise quarterback. It’s been said publicly from ownership down here, so to not have a deal done is very disappointing.”
Now Mayfield is taking the risk.
If he struggles, the Buccaneers will have more leverage when negotiations resume.
If he produces another big season, the Buccaneers could find themselves paying substantially more, or trying to prevent their quarterback from testing the open market.
“If you’ve waited this long to take care of your franchise quarterback, that’s too bad because it’s only going to get worse from here,” Mayfield told ESPN. “I’m going to have a really big year.”
Prove that 2024 was not an outlier
Mayfield’s contract value depends on which version of him the Buccaneers believe they will be paying.
In 2024, Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
He posted a career-best 106.8 passer rating and established a Buccaneers record for completion percentage.
Those are franchise-quarterback numbers.
Mayfield was decisive, accurate, and aggressive without letting that aggressiveness overwhelm the offense.
A strong running game helped create manageable third downs and favorable play-action opportunities.
The production declined significantly in 2025.
Mayfield completed 343 of 543 passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. His completion rate fell to 63.2 percent, and his passer rating dropped to 90.6.
The Buccaneers also slipped from four consecutive NFC South championships to an 8-9 record, losing the division on a tiebreaker.
Mayfield was not solely responsible. He dealt with injuries, the offensive line was shuffled, and Tampa Bay’s receiving corps rarely remained healthy.
The rushing attack also declined, forcing the offense to lean too heavily on Mayfield.
Still, quarterbacks seeking more than $50 million per season are judged by a different standard.
Injuries, coordinator changes, and poor protection may provide context, but they do not completely erase the results.
Mayfield must demonstrate that 2025 was the exception. Prove he can be consistent
Mayfield’s best performances leave little doubt about his ability.
Against Seattle last season, he completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
His 87.9 percent completion rate and 11.5 yards per attempt led the NFL that week. His passer rating was 134.7.
That was the quarterback the Buccaneers saw throughout much of 2024. The problem was sustaining it.
The Buccaneers need fewer dramatic swings between Mayfield’s best and worst football.
They need the quarterback who takes advantage of what the defense gives him, gets the offense out of bad plays, and does not try to rescue every possession with one difficult throw.
Mayfield’s competitiveness is one of his greatest strengths. His refusal to give up on a play can also become a weakness when he forces the ball into coverage or holds it too long.
The goal is not to eliminate the gunslinger mentality that revitalized his career. Tampa Bay needs Mayfield to control it.
Prove he can stay healthy
Mayfield has earned respect throughout the Buccaneers’ locker room for playing through injuries, but availability and durability matter in a long-term negotiation.
He played through shoulder and knee problems last season. He kept competing, but the injuries hurt his accuracy and his ability to drive the football downfield.
Mayfield also cannot expose himself to unnecessary punishment when scrambling.
He rushed for a career-high 382 yards in 2025 and averaged 6.9 yards per carry. Twenty-one of his 29 third-down rushing attempts resulted in first downs.
That mobility is valuable. So is understanding when to slide, step out of bounds, or throw the football away.
The Buccaneers need Mayfield on the field for 17 games. More importantly, it needs him physically able to play his best football in December.
Prove he can thrive with Zac Robinson
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson may give Mayfield his best opportunity to rebound.
Robinson plans to incorporate more wide-zone runs, play-action passes, bootlegs and designed pocket movement.
Those concepts should fit Mayfield’s ability to throw accurately while moving outside the pocket.
“His ability to throw on the run—he’s probably the best in the league at throwing on the run,” Robinson said.
The offense must also restore the balance that helped Mayfield flourish in 2024.
Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell should give Tampa Bay a capable backfield, but the line must create running lanes consistently.
“You cannot just go back there and drop back 50 times a game,” Mayfield said. “That is not a recipe for success in this league.”
Mayfield is right.
The running game cannot disappear and leave the quarterback responsible for carrying the offense every week.
But franchise quarterbacks are also expected to elevate the people around them.
Mayfield must master Robinson’s system, develop chemistry with his receivers, and keep the offense functioning when injuries inevitably occur.
Prove he deserves the $50 million market
Mayfield’s current contract averages $33.3 million per season, placing him well below the highest-paid quarterbacks.
Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes are in the $60 million range. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence have deals averaging approximately $55 million. Brock Purdy averages $53 million.
Mayfield’s camp believes he belongs in that general group.
Since joining the Buccaneers in 2023, Mayfield has passed for 12,237 yards and 95 touchdowns.
According to ESPN’s reporting on the negotiations, he ranked third in the NFL in passing yards and second in touchdown passes over those three seasons.
His realistic market value is approximately $50 million to $55 million annually. A three-year extension worth between $155 million and $165 million, with at least $90 million to $100 million in practical guarantees, would be a reasonable starting point if he rebounds.
To justify that contract, Mayfield probably needs to reach 4,000 passing yards, throw at least 30 touchdowns, complete close to 67 percent of his passes, and lead Tampa Bay back to the playoffs.
Numbers alone, however, will not settle the argument.
He must play his best football in the games that matter most.
That starts Sunday in Cincinnati.
The Bengals present an immediate test. Tampa Bay will be facing a talented team on the road, and Mayfield may have to match points with Cincinnati’s offense.
It is exactly the kind of game in which a franchise quarterback is expected to make the difference.
Mayfield said the contract will not become a distraction.
“It’s all ball,” he said. “It’s all team. It’s all about winning here now and what we’re going to do.”
That is the correct approach because the cleanest solution to every contract disagreement is winning.
Mayfield believes he has already proven he is the Buccaneers franchise quarterback.
Beginning Sunday in Cincinnati, he gets 17 games to prove the Buccaneers cannot afford to let him become anything else.
