By By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
ST. PETERSBURG — The Yankees are coming to the Trop, and the Rays should welcome the challenge.
For Rays fans, there is something especially satisfying about an October matchup with New York.
Every pitch carries a little extra weight. Every Yankees rally feels a little more irritating. And every Rays victory gives this fan base another reason to stand up and be heard.
But the Rays cannot let the rivalry become bigger than the assignment.
Three wins will send them to the American League Championship Series. Anything less ends a season that deserves a longer life.
The best-of-five ALDS opens Saturday, Oct. 3, at 6:30 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field.
The Rays enter the series with 98 wins and a 55–26 home record.
The 99 wins were the best in the AL, while the 55-26 home record was also best in the AL.
Those numbers should give the Rays confidence.
They should also raise expectations. Winning the division was a major accomplishment, but this team has earned the right to chase something bigger.
What the season series tells us
Tampa Bay won the season series 7–6.
That is an edge, but hardly a reason to assume the series will be a breeze.
One game separated these clubs across 13 meetings. A five-game series leaves even less room for error to recover from a bad decision or a missed opportunity.
My takeaway is straightforward: The Rays should enter the series confident they can beat New York, while understanding how quickly this matchup can swing.
The important question is how the Rays respond when their first scoring opportunity arrives. A runner at second with nobody out cannot routinely become three unproductive plate appearances.
An early lead cannot become an invitation to give away outs on the bases.
Against an opponent this familiar, execution will matter more than surprise. These two teams know each other’s intricacies, so there should not be a lot of surprises in the series.
October history belongs to the Rays
The Rays Played the Yankees in 2020. ALDS, and won that meeting, three games to two.
The unforgettable finish came when Mike Brosseau homered off Aroldis Chapman in the eighth inning of Game 5. Tampa Bay won 2–1 at Petco Park.
That history reminds us this franchise can stand across from the Yankees in October and finish the job.
The same lesson applies now. Respect the opponent, but make them earn everything.
Rasmussen sets the tone
Drew Rasmussen starts Game 1 after going 16–5 with a 2.67 ERA and an American League-leading 0.91 WHIP.
Rasmussen is the Rays’ best pitcher this season and deserves the Game 1 start.
My biggest key for Rasmussen is controlling the opening innings.
Get ahead, avoid unnecessary traffic, and make New York build a rally through quality contact.
A solo homer is survivable. A homer after a walk and a defensive mistake can change the entire evening.
The Rays also need to recognize when the game demands their best available reliever.
In October, protecting a lead in the sixth can be every bit as important as protecting it in the ninth.
Beyond Rasmussen, Peralta, Jax and Martinez remained rotation options Friday.
That flexibility gives Kevin Cash choices. It also makes his timing critical.
The objective should be getting the right pitcher into the right situation, even when that situation arrives earlier than expected.
Make New York work for its outs
The Rays swept the Yankees at home in April while using bunts and pressure on the defense.
That approach should remain part of the plan.
Giving away an out to announce you are playing small ball doesn’t help. Making a pitcher field his position or forcing an infielder to rush a throw can.
The Rays should look for opportunities to extend innings without becoming reckless.
Take the extra base when the play allows it. Stay put when it does not—Force New York to complete the play.
A close postseason game can turn on the runner who reaches safely before the big hit. The Rays need to value that plate appearance as much as the one that follows.
Do not let Judge’s status become a distraction
Judge missed the Wild Card Series with a calf injury; his return remained uncertain.
The Rays have to prepare for him to play. They also cannot approach a lineup without him as though the difficult work has disappeared.
New York outscored Boston 18–2 in its sweep. Cody Bellinger drove in four runs in the clincher, and Ben Rice had six RBIs in the opener.
Those are just two of the names the Rays must account for regardless of Judge’s status.
The Rays need to keep the bases clean ahead of the dangerous bats. Do not turn a manageable matchup into a crisis with a four-pitch walk.
And don’t assume the seventh or eighth hitter is a safe place to relax.
Players who could decide the series
Junior Caminero is the Rays hitter I will be watching most closely. My key for him is patience.
Let the at-bat develop, recognize when New York is trying to pull him outside the zone, and accept the walk when it is the best outcome.
The Rays need good swings from Caminero. It also needs him to give the next hitter an opportunity when the Yankees refuse to challenge him.
Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda also belong on that watch list, too.
I want to see them work the count and make New York’s starters throw meaningful pitches rather than cruise through quick innings.
A stubborn at-bat can help even before it produces a hit.
For the Yankees, Bellinger and Rice demand attention after their Wild Card performances.
Judge’s health remains the biggest lineup question.
Gerrit Cole is another key figure for the Yankees and will start Game 1.
The Rays should make Cole prove he can consistently command the zone.
Chasing early would give him exactly the kind of rhythm Tampa Bay needs to disrupt.
The Trop must matter
Home field gives Tampa Bay an opportunity. The players have to make it count.
An early lead would give the crowd something to build on. A clean defensive inning would keep that energy moving.
My pick is Rays in five.
I expect tight games, difficult pitching decisions, and at least one game that tests every Tampa Bay fan’s nerves.
But I believe the Rays can finish this at home. They have earned the opportunity.
Now they have to earn three more wins.
