By What Could the Rays’ Postseason Rotation Look Like? Tampa Bay Suddenly Has October Arms
By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
ST. PETERSBURG — For most of the season, we have talked about the Tampa Bay Rays’ offense, the bullpen, and whether this team could hold off the Yankees in the American League East.
But as September approaches, another question is becoming much more interesting.
What exactly is the Rays’ starting rotation going to look like in October?
Because Kevin Cash may have a problem every manager would love.
The Rays could enter the postseason with Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Nick Martinez and Freddy Peralta as their four primary starters.
Think about that for a second.
Rasmussen is pitching like an ace. Martinez has been one of the most dependable starters on the staff. McClanahan is healthy again.
And after Wednesday afternoon in Detroit, Peralta finally looked like the pitcher Tampa Bay thought it was acquiring at the trade deadline.
There is still plenty of baseball left, and postseason rotations are rarely decided in August.
But if the playoffs started tomorrow, here is how I would line them up.
Game 1: Drew Rasmussen
There shouldn’t be much debate anymore. Give Rasmussen the baseball.
The right-hander is 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts in 140 1/3 innings this season.
He has become the starter the Rays can trust when they absolutely need to win.
Rasmussen won his seventh consecutive start Monday in Detroit, allowing one run on three hits over six innings. He struck out five and didn’t walk a batter.
The seven straight winning starts tied the longest streak by a Major League pitcher this season.
That’s the guy I want starting Game 1.
Not because he throws the hardest or has the biggest name.
Because when the Rays need six quality innings and a chance to win a baseball game, Rasmussen has delivered.
October baseball isn’t always about overpowering hitters. It is about throwing strikes, controlling innings, and avoiding the three-run disaster.
Rasmussen does those things exceptionally well.
Game 2: Shane McClanahan
This is where things get interesting.
A completely healthy McClanahan might still have the best pure stuff in this rotation.
The left-hander is 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 107 1/3 innings this season.
The concern, obviously, is health.
McClanahan recently returned from the injured list after dealing with mid-back tightness.
His first outing back wasn’t perfect, but the important part was that the velocity was there. His fastball averaged 95.6 mph, matching his season average.
Then came his Aug. 22 start in Baltimore.
McClanahan worked five innings, gave up four hits, no runs, and struck out five and walked one.
That looked much more like the McClanahan Rays fans have been waiting to see.
After his return from the injured list, Cash said McClanahan was getting close.
“First and foremost, it’s nice to have him back, and I think that was a close version of himself,” Cash said.
If McClanahan spends September building his workload and remains healthy, I want the left-hander starting Game 2.
Rasmussen, Martinez and Peralta are right-handed. McClanahan gives Cash a power left-hander capable of changing the complexion of a postseason series.
Game 3: Nick Martinez
How many times this season have the Rays needed somebody to stop the bleeding, and Martinez has taken the ball and done exactly that?
It happened again Sunday in Baltimore.
With the Rays struggling and trying to avoid a sweep, Martinez threw six scoreless innings, allowed one hit, walked nobody and struck out four in Tampa Bay’s 3-1 victory. He improved to 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA.
Martinez doesn’t have to strike out 12 hitters. He changes speeds, throws strikes, and generally keeps the Rays in the game.
And in a postseason series, that is exactly what the Rays need from a Game 3 starter.
Remember what a Game 3 can mean.
If the Rays are ahead 2-0, Martinez can put a series away.
If they’re tied 1-1, he can swing the series back in Tampa Bay’s direction.
And if they’re down 0-2, you need somebody
capable of pitching with the season essentially hanging in the balance.
Martinez has repeatedly shown he can handle those situations.
Game 4: Freddy Peralta
A week ago, I’m not sure Peralta makes my postseason rotation.
Today? He does.
Wednesday’s performance against Detroit changed the conversation.
Peralta threw six scoreless innings in Tampa Bay’s 3-0 victory, allowing only two hits and no walks. It was easily his best performance since joining the Rays.
That’s exactly the kind of outing Tampa Bay envisioned when it acquired him.
Peralta’s first four Rays starts had been ugly. He carried a 7.17 ERA over 21 1/3 innings during that stretch.
But the talent didn’t suddenly disappear.
This is a pitcher who won 17 games last season, and Wednesday we finally saw what that pitcher could look like in a Rays uniform.
If Peralta can build on that outing over the next month, suddenly Tampa Bay doesn’t merely have four postseason starters.
It has four starters who can win a postseason game.
That is a major difference.
What About the Rest of the Rays’ Starters?
This is where Cash and the Rays could get creative.
Ian Seymour provides valuable depth, and Griffin Jax remains another possibility when healthy.
Jax has been sidelined with right elbow discomfort, while Seymour has helped keep the rotation together during stretches when Tampa Bay needed another arm.
But October isn’t the regular season.
You don’t necessarily need five starters. In a short series, you might need only three.
In a seven-game series, four is usually enough because off days let managers bring their best starters back.
That means some starting pitchers can become bullpen weapons.
And if there is one organization that isn’t afraid to blur the line between starter and reliever, it is the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays Can Match Up With Almost Anybody
MLB recently ranked the top potential postseason rotations, with the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox near the top.
Tampa Bay belongs in that discussion.
Would I take the Rays’ rotation over a Dodgers group that could include Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Blake Snell?
Probably not. But that’s a ridiculously high bar.
The more relevant question is whether the Rays have enough starting pitching to win three playoff series and get to the World Series.
I think they do.
Rasmussen — 2.95 ERA.
Martinez — 13 wins and a 2.93 ERA.
McClanahan — a 3.10 ERA with the stuff to dominate when healthy.
Peralta — a veteran with swing-and-miss ability who may finally be finding himself at exactly the right time.
That’s a legitimate October rotation.
There really isn’t a pitcher in that group where you look at the matchup and immediately think Tampa Bay is at a huge disadvantage.
My Rays Postseason Rotation
If October started today, this is my order:
Game 1 — Drew Rasmussen; Game 2 — Shane McClanahan; Game 3 — Nick Martinez; Game 4 — Freddy Peralta
Could that change? Absolutely.
Peralta could continue pitching like he did Wednesday and move up.
McClanahan could dominate September and reclaim the Game 1 assignment.
Martinez could force his way higher simply by continuing to win.
The Rays aren’t trying to figure out whether they have enough starting pitching. They’re trying to determine which quality starter gets the baseball first.
For a franchise that has spent plenty of Octobers trying to manufacture innings and squeeze every possible matchup out of its pitching staff, this postseason could look different.
The Rays may be able to hand the baseball to a legitimate starting pitcher and tell him to win the game.
Rasmussen.
McClanahan.
Martinez.
Peralta.
If those four arrive in October healthy and pitching anywhere close to their best, the Rays won’t just have a postseason rotation.
They’ll have one that can carry them deep into October.
