By By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
For much of the summer, Rays fans have enjoyed watching the Yankees, Boston, and the other teams in the AL East chase them.
That joy is fading into real, genuine concern.
After Saturday night’s frustrating 3-2, 10-inning loss to the Baltimore Orioles, the Rays sit at 76-53, and their lead over the New York Yankees has shrunk to just three games.
The Rays have lost three straight, seven of their last nine, and are 3-7 over their last 10 games.
So, should Rays fans be concerned? Yes.
Should they panic? Not yet.
But for the first time in quite a while, Tampa Bay has turned what looked like a comfortable march toward an AL East championship into a legitimate pennant race.
The Rays’ Margin for Error Is Disappearing
The standings tell the story. Tampa Bay is 76-53. New York is 73-56. Boston isn’t completely out of the picture either, sitting 6½ games behind the Rays entering Sunday’s action.
What makes Tampa Bay’s recent slide particularly frustrating is what preceded it.
The Rays put themselves in an outstanding position, including a nine-game road winning streak and a six-game lead in the AL East.
Now, suddenly, they’re stumbling at the point in the season when championship-caliber teams want to begin sharpening their game for October.
Saturday was another example.
Shane McClanahan gave the Rays exactly what they needed in his second start since returning from the injured list: five scoreless innings, four hits allowed, one walk and five strikeouts.
Tampa Bay carried a 2-0 advantage into the eighth inning, only for Samuel Basallo’s two-run homer to tie the game. Baltimore eventually won it on Dylan Beavers’ walk-off double in the 10th.
These are the games division champions have to finish.
Baltimore Has Become a Serious Problem
If there is one part of this slump that should really bother Rays fans, it’s Tampa Bay’s inability to put away Baltimore.
The Orioles have now won seven of their last eight meetings against the Rays.
Baltimore isn’t chasing Tampa Bay for the division championship. Still, the Orioles have repeatedly exposed what has gone wrong with the Rays: missed opportunities, an inability to add on after taking leads, and pitching mistakes at the worst possible times.
Friday’s 5-3 loss was another example. The Rays led 3-2 before Baltimore scored three times in the fifth, with Pete Alonso delivering the decisive two-run homer.
The Rays aren’t going to dominate every opponent.
But when you’re trying to hold off the Yankees for an AL East championship, repeatedly dropping games to a sub-500 Baltimore team is a good way to invite New York back into the race.
And that’s exactly what Tampa Bay has done.
The Offense Isn’t Completely Broken
Here’s where Rays fans can find some encouragement.
This isn’t necessarily a case of the offense completely disappearing.
Since August 1, Tampa Bay has been among baseball’s better offensive clubs, entering the weekend with a .282 batting average, .338 on-base percentage, and .432 slugging percentage during that span. The Rays also ranked near the top of MLB in runs and stolen bases over that stretch.
The bigger issue lately has been turning offense into winning baseball.
Getting runners on base isn’t enough in late August.
The Rays have to bring them home. Getting seven strong innings from a starter isn’t enough if the bullpen can’t protect the lead.
Taylor Walls summed up the situation well.
“ All three areas, we’ve got to be a little bit better. It’s almost September, so the race is getting tighter. So we’re going to have to pick it up.”
There Are Reasons for Optimism
For all the concern surrounding the Rays, let’s remember the most important thing:
They’re still in first place.
They still own the best record in the American League at 76-53, and they still have a three-game advantage over New York.
And perhaps most importantly for October, McClanahan’s performance Saturday was extremely encouraging.
A healthy McClanahan changes the look of Tampa Bay’s postseason rotation. The left-hander has returned at exactly the right time, and five scoreless innings Saturday represented another step toward becoming the pitcher Tampa Bay will need down the stretch.
There is also plenty of talent surrounding him.
This is not a Rays club surviving on smoke and mirrors. The Rays have spent most of the season atop the AL East because they’ve been one of the American League’s best teams.
But the Yankees aren’t going anywhere.
That’s why the Rays need to stop treating their cushion as though it’s still comfortable.
Concerned? Yes. Panicked? No.
There’s an enormous difference between a bad stretch and a collapse.
Right now, the Rays are experiencing a bad stretch.
If this continues for another week, the conversation changes.
The warning signs are certainly there. The Rays have lost seven of nine. The Yankees have cut into what was once a healthier division lead. And the Rays have recently let too many winnable games get away.
Still, perspective matters.
The Rays enter Sunday in first place with a three-game lead and 33 games remaining. That’s a position almost every team in baseball would happily take.
But Rays fans also need to understand what’s at stake.
Winning the AL East isn’t simply about hanging another banner. Under MLB’s current postseason format, the top two division winners in each league receive first-round byes into the Division Series.
That makes every game increasingly important.
The Rays have spent months proving they are good enough to win this division.
Now, they have to finish it.
And if you’re a Rays fan who has followed this franchise long enough, you know nothing is ever going to be easy. A relaxing September was too much to ask.
The Yankees are coming. The lead is three games. The pressure is officially on.
