By From Red Hot to Vulnerable: What Has Gone Wrong With the Tampa Bay Rays?
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — A little more than a week ago, the Tampa Bay Rays looked almost unbeatable.
They had just completed a perfect 9-0 West Coast road trip, were getting contributions throughout the lineup, and appeared to be separating themselves from the rest of the American League.
Then they came home.
Seven games later, the Rays suddenly look human again.
Tampa Bay finished a disappointing homestand Thursday with a 5-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, dropping its record to 76-51. The Rays went just 2-5 on the homestand after their perfect road trip and have now lost three consecutive series at Tropicana Field.
The bigger concern isn’t simply the losses. It’s how the Rays are losing.
The Rays have been outscored 63-22 in their last three homestands.
The Starting Pitching Has Suddenly Looked Vulnerable
For much of the season, Tampa Bay could count on its rotation to keep games manageable.
That hasn’t happened consistently during the recent skid. Even Nick Martinez, one of Tampa Bay’s most dependable starters, was roughed up Tuesday against Toronto.
Martinez surrendered six runs and nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings, his shortest start of the season. Before that outing, he had allowed three runs or fewer in 20 starts, and Tampa Bay had won 18 of his first 24 appearances.
Drew Rasmussen wasn’t immune, either. After retiring nine of his first 10 Blue Jays on Wednesday, Rasmussen allowed four runs during a seven-batter fifth inning.
Freddy Peralta has shown flashes since joining the Rays, and Shane McClanahan’s return gives Tampa Bay another potential difference-maker.
But the rotation hasn’t consistently provided the length it did earlier in the season.
That has created another problem.
The Bullpen Is Being Asked to Do Too Much
When starters don’t work deep into games, Kevin Cash has little choice but to turn things over to his bullpen earlier than he’d like.
During the four-game Orioles series alone, Rays relievers were forced to cover 22 of 37 innings.
That workload eventually catches up with a bullpen.
The back end remains formidable. Bryan Baker recorded his MLB-leading 36th save Wednesday against Toronto, with Tyler Wells and Kevin Kelly helping protect a one-run lead.
But asking those high-leverage arms to rescue games constantly isn’t sustainable.
The Rays need their starters to get them through six innings more consistently. Otherwise, the bullpen could become increasingly vulnerable just as the games become more important
The Offense Has Lost Its Consistency
Perhaps the most startling statistic from Tampa Bay’s recent downturn is what happened during its last three home series.
The Rays went 3-7 and were outscored 63-22.
That’s an enormous reversal for a team that looked explosive during its nine-game winning streak.
There have still been flashes. Yandy Díaz homered Wednesday. Junior Caminero continues to hit the baseball as hard as virtually anyone in the game.
Chandler Simpson’s speed remains disruptive.
But the lineup hasn’t consistently put together innings.
Tuesday’s 10-5 loss was a perfect example.
The Rays collected 13 hits — yet every one was a single. The Rays loaded the bases in the third inning and came away empty after Jonathan Aranda grounded into a double play.
Another opportunity disappeared when Liam Hicks grounded into a double play with two aboard in the fifth.
Getting runners on base isn’t enough in September and October.
Someone has to drive them home.
Thursday was worse. Shane Bieber limited Tampa Bay to four singles over seven innings, and Toronto retired 17 of the final 20 Rays hitters in the 5-1 loss.
That’s not the offensive formula that produced one of baseball’s best records.
The Margin for Error Is Getting Smaller
There’s no reason for Rays fans to panic.
The Rays remain in first place and still own one of baseball’s best records. A 76-51 team doesn’t suddenly become bad because of one rough homestand.
But the American League East isn’t going away.
The Yankees remain within striking distance, while Baltimore and Toronto have played much better baseball recently. Cash acknowledged that reality after Thursday’s loss.
“We got two teams, the Orioles and Blue Jays, on the homestand that are playing very good baseball,” Cash said. “They put it to us. We’re playing in a very challenging division.”
That’s the point.
The Rays aren’t playing August baseball against teams simply finishing their schedules anymore.
They’re playing opponents fighting for postseason positioning, and the intensity is beginning to resemble October.
From Unbeatable to Vulnerable
The most fascinating part of the Rays’ recent stretch is how quickly everything changed.
They left the West Coast after a historic 9-0 trip looking like baseball’s hottest team.
They left Tropicana Field after a 2-5 homestand looking considerably more vulnerable.
Cash even suggested a change of scenery might help. “Maybe it’s a good thing to get back out on the road,” he said.
He might be right.
The good news is that Tampa Bay doesn’t suddenly need to reinvent itself. The formula that produced 76 wins is still there: quality starting pitching, a deep bullpen, pressure on the bases, timely hitting and contributions throughout the roster.
But the Rays need to rediscover it quickly.
This isn’t the time of year when weaknesses stay hidden.
The starting rotation needs to provide more innings. The bullpen needs some breathing room.
The offense needs to convert opportunities into runs instead of leaving runners stranded.
And the Rays need to start playing complete baseball again.
The nine-game winning streak showed just how dangerous this team can be.
The last seven games showed something equally important.
The Rays can be beaten.
And with the postseason getting closer, the challenge now isn’t proving they can get hot again.
It’s proving that when October arrives, they can stay that way.
