By Army vs. USF Preview: Five Keys for the Bulls to Win at West Point
By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
TAMPA — The first victory of the Brian Hartline era was important. The second game will tell us considerably more about his South Florida Bulls.
USF travels to Michie Stadium on Saturday for an early American Conference test against Army, one of the most disciplined, physical, and frustrating teams in college football.
Both teams are 1-0, but they arrived there in dramatically different ways.
Army overwhelmed Bryant 59-3, piling up 648 yards of total offense and an astonishing 569 yards on the ground.
USF defeated FIU 19-9 at Raymond James Stadium behind a strong defensive performance, three takeaways, and four field goals from Nico Gramatica.
The Bulls won their opener, but they produced only 208 yards and one offensive touchdown. That may have been enough against FIU. It won’t be enough at West Point.
Army enters Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite, according to the line listed by CBS Sports, with the over-under set at 46.5 points.
The game kicks off at noon and will be televised on CBS Sports Network. As always, betting lines can move before kickoff.
This is also the earliest conference opener in USF history, which raises the stakes considerably.
If the Bulls truly expect to compete for an American Conference championship, winning games like this cannot be viewed as optional.
“When you talk about winning conference championships, especially in this conference right here, you’ve got to go through the service academies,” USF offensive guard Caleb Cook said.
“It’s not a guarantee to win if you beat the service academies, but a lot of our conference champions had to go through those service academies just to get a shot at winning the championship.”
Here are five keys for the Bulls to leave West Point with a victory.
1. Play assignment football against the option
Everyone knows what Army wants to do. Knowing it and stopping it are entirely different things.
The Black Knights’ option attack forces defenders to make the correct decision repeatedly. One missed assignment can turn a modest gain into a touchdown.
Defenders must account for the dive back, quarterback, and pitch man while also dealing with cut blocks and misdirection.
Army quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns against Bryant after producing 1,223 rushing yards and 18 scores last season.
He is the engine of an offense that wants to control the clock, shorten the game, and slowly wear down a defense.
“When there’s a triple option, there are three decisions that have to be made, and you need an answer for all three,” Hartline said. “The best way to erase anything is high effort, high discipline, running through the football with effort.”
USF’s defense was built to become stronger and more physical against the run. Saturday is the first true test of whether that rebuilding project worked.
The good news is defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge understands this offense.
His East Carolina defense held Army to 241 rushing yards and 290 total yards in a 28-6 victory last season.
Holding Army to 241 yards on the ground may not sound dominant, but against the Black Knights, it qualifies as an excellent afternoon.
USF’s defensive front must win first down, force Army into longer-yardage situations, and remain disciplined on the edges.
The Bulls cannot spend the afternoon chasing the football instead of defending their responsibilities.
2. Get the offense out of neutral
There was plenty to like about USF’s opener. The Bulls committed no turnovers, were penalized only four times, and protected quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr.
But 208 total yards will not win many conference games.
Van Buren completed 11 of 18 passes for 100 yards against FIU. He made good decisions and did not put the defense in difficult situations, but USF needs more than careful quarterback play. It needs explosive plays.
Hartline described Van Buren as “a staple and a strength, not a liability” after the opener. Now the Bulls must allow him to become more than a caretaker.
Army wants to control the ball and limit possessions. That makes every USF drive more valuable. Three-and-outs will place enormous pressure on a defense already dealing with one of the most physically demanding offenses it will face all season.
The Bulls need to establish D.J. Crowther and the running game, but they also must take calculated shots downfield. One or two explosive completions could change the entire game by forcing Army to play from behind.
That is where the Black Knights are least comfortable.
3. Make Army chase points
USF cannot afford another slow start.
The Bulls need to score first and put pressure on Army.
The Black Knights are constructed to play from ahead, drain the clock, and limit an opponent’s opportunities.
Their offense becomes far less comfortable if the scoreboard forces them to increase the tempo and throw the football.
“Army is going to be disciplined, and they’re going to be tough,” Crowther said. “We’ve got to match that.
Starting fast. Starting physical. Setting the tone. That’s the mindset.”
That cannot simply be a good quote. It must be USF’s personality Saturday.
An early touchdown would do more than provide seven points. It would validate an offense that left the FIU game frustrated and force Army away from its preferred script.
Hartline said his players were “very unsatisfied” after beating FIU because they understood how many opportunities they had wasted.
4. Win the turnover battle again
USF’s formula against FIU was not complicated.
Protect the football, force turnovers, and win the field position battle.
The Bulls finished plus-three in turnover margin, and all three FIU giveaways led to USF scoring drives.
That was the difference in the game.
Turnovers are even more valuable against Army because possessions are limited.
A fumble on an option exchange can erase six or seven minutes of work. An interception can force the Black Knights to abandon their normal offensive rhythm.
USF’s defense cannot become so consumed with stopping the run that it forgets about Army’s play-action passing game.
The Black Knights do not throw often, but when they do, receivers can be running wide open because defensive backs have spent the afternoon staring into the backfield.
Offensively, Van Buren must keep valuing the football. One careless turnover could allow Army to control the next eight minutes and completely change the pace of the game.
“You are not that type of team by doing it once,” Hartline said of USF’s clean performance against FIU. “You are what you do over time.”
Saturday would be an excellent time to begin establishing that identity.
5. Be patient—and trust Nico Gramatica
This is unlikely to be a wide-open shootout. The 46.5-point total reflects what should be a physical, possession-by-possession game.
USF cannot become impatient if the score is 7-6 or 10-9 entering the fourth quarter.
The Bulls must understand that not every possession has to end with a touchdown.
Gramatica made four field goals against FIU, including two from at least 50 yards, and was named the American Conference Special Teams Player of the Week.
His range gives Hartline options once the Bulls cross midfield.
Field goals cannot replace touchdowns forever, but in a tight road game at Army, three points can be extremely valuable.
Punting and kickoff coverage will matter, too. The Bulls cannot give Army short fields.
They need to make the Black Knights drive 75 or 80 yards, increasing the chances of a penalty, negative play, or failed fourth-down conversion.
This game may eventually come down to one kick. If it does, USF should feel very good about the player wearing No. 7.
Prediction: USF 23, Army 20
The oddsmakers favor Army, and that is understandable. The Black Knights are at home, their option offense looked nearly unstoppable in the opener, and USF’s offense did very little against FIU.
Still, Bryant was not equipped to handle Army’s physical running game. USF should be.
Aldridge has experience preparing for the option, and his success against Army last season cannot be ignored.
The Bulls also showed against FIU that they can tackle, create turnovers, and remain disciplined.
The concern is the offense.
USF does not need Van Buren to throw for 300 yards, but it needs two or three explosive plays and at least two touchdown drives.
If the Bulls can score early, protect the football and keep Army’s rushing attack from dominating the clock, they can win this game.
It probably won’t be pretty. Games against Army rarely are.
But championship contenders occasionally have to win ugly, especially on the road. USF did that against FIU. Now the Bulls must prove they can do it against a much better opponent.
This is more than the second game of Hartline’s tenure. It is an early opportunity for the Bulls to establish themselves as legitimate contenders in the American Conference.
And if USF walks out of Michie Stadium 2-0, people around the conference will have to start paying attention.
