By By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
TAMPA — There are safer picks to win the American Conference than USF.
Navy is getting plenty of preseason respect.
Memphis is always dangerous. UTSA has become one of the league’s more consistent programs.
Tulane has been there before.
But if you’re asking me which team I believe will be standing at the end?
Give me the Bulls.
Yes, in Brian Hartline’s first season.
USF has questions. A new coaching staff, a new starting quarterback, and a defense that has been rebuilt with a lot of new faces.
But take a good look around the American Conference, and you’ll discover everybody has questions.
What USF has is something a little different.
Upside.
The Bulls have enough talent to win this conference.
They have a schedule that gives them a reasonable path to the championship game. They have a quarterback in Michael Van Buren who could become one of the league’s best.
And they have a head coach who came to Tampa after spending years in an Ohio State program where championships weren’t talked about as dreams.
They were expected.
That’s the biggest change surrounding USF football right now.
Hartline didn’t come to Tampa to celebrate bowl eligibility.
“There are a lot of criteria it takes to project out to be a program that can consistently win, consistently chase championships, and compete at the highest level,” Hartline said when discussing what attracted him to USF.
He also talked about needing to see “the vision of there being no limits.”
That’s exactly what USF needs.
For too long, the conversation around this program has centered on potential.
Great location. Great recruiting territory. Huge university. Tampa market. Now an on-campus stadium coming in 2027.
At some point, potential has to become championships.
The American is there for the taking
Navy deserves to be considered a favorite. Memphis has enough talent to win the league. UTSA will be tough, especially when USF travels to San Antonio. Tulane has built a program that expects to compete for championships.
But where is the unbeatable team?
I don’t see one.
That’s why this could be one of the most interesting American Conference races we’ve had in years.
And the schedule gives USF an opportunity.
The Bulls don’t play Navy during the regular season.
They do have Army, Temple, UTSA, UAB, East Carolina, Memphis, FAU, and Tulane.
There are difficult games in there, but there isn’t one that should make USF believe it is walking onto the field with an inferior roster.
The Oct. 8 game at UTSA is the first one I have circled.
Thursday night. On the road. Against another team that believes it can win the conference.
Those are the games championship teams eventually have to win.
USF doesn’t necessarily have to win it to stay alive in the race, but beating UTSA and the Bulls could control their own path through the conference.
Then comes November.
That’s where we’ll find out what this team really is.
USF plays at East Carolina on Nov. 6, Memphis at home Nov. 12, FAU on the road Nov. 21, and Tulane at Raymond James Stadium on Nov. 27.
Four games in twenty-one days.
Maybe a Championship on the line.
Van Buren can change everything
There may not be a more important player in USF’s championship hopes than Michael Van Buren.
Quarterbacks can decide conference races.
Van Buren won the job in training camp and gives offensive coordinator Tim Beck a quarterback with Power Four experience and plenty of room to grow.
The important thing is USF shouldn’t need him to become Superman.
This offense is being built to become more physical.
The offensive line is bigger. Caleb Cook gives the Bulls an experienced presence up front.
USF wants to run the football and win games when everything isn’t clicking perfectly.
There will be a Saturday this season when Van Buren isn’t sharp. There will be a game when USF isn’t hitting explosive plays.
Can the Bulls line up on third-and-2 and move somebody?
Will they protect a fourth-quarter lead by running the football?
Can they win 24-20 instead of needing to win 45-41?
Those things will tell us whether USF is actually ready to win a championship.
The weapons are there.
Mudia Reuben gives Van Buren a legitimate threat in the passing game. Grayson Howard can be the leader of the defense. Ayden Jackson has a chance to become one of the league’s better defensive backs. Nico Gramatica gives USF a kicker you can trust when a November game comes down to one possession.
There is talent on this roster.
The question is how quickly Hartline and his staff can turn that talent into a team.
The defense will decide it
If you’re looking for the reason my prediction could be wrong, start here.
Defense.
Josh Aldridge has a lot of new pieces to put together. That makes the early portion of the schedule especially important.
Defense isn’t just all about talent.
It’s communication, tackling, and gap discipline.
Knowing where the guy next to you is going to be.
That takes time.
USF doesn’t need to become one of the best defenses in college football suddenly.
But the Bulls cannot consistently ask Van Buren and the offense to score 40 points.
Become a solid, dependable defense, and USF has enough everywhere else to win this league.
And don’t underestimate Raymond James Stadium
Memphis comes to Tampa. Tulane comes to Tampa.
Remember, USF went 6-0 at Raymond James Stadium last season.
Now imagine Nov. 27.
Thanksgiving weekend. Tulane in Tampa.
A championship-game berth potentially on the line.
That’s the kind of meaningful late-season football USF has been trying to get back to for years.
The American Conference Championship Game is hosted by one of the participating teams based on the league’s championship-site procedures.
What if that’s USF?
What if the Bulls’ final season at Raymond James Stadium ends not with another ordinary home game, but with USF playing for a conference championship in Tampa?
That’s not something I would have predicted confidently a few years ago.
I can now.
I’m picking the Bulls
Navy might be the safer choice. Memphis might be the fashionable choice. UTSA might make me regret this prediction on Oct. 8.
That’s fine. But I’m taking USF.
I believe Van Buren develops into one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. And I also believe the bigger offensive line will change this team’s personality. I believe the defense will improve as the season progresses. And I believe Hartline’s expectations will eventually become this program’s expectations.
Will USF go undefeated in the conference?
I don’t think so.
There will be a stumble somewhere. That’s why I’m predicting 7-1.
But 7-1 should put the Bulls squarely in the championship race.
And when they get there? I’m picking them again.
USF goes 7-1 in American Conference play, reaches the American Conference Championship Game, and wins it.
For years we’ve talked about what USF football could become. Hartline didn’t come here to keep talking about it.
It’s time to find out if the Bulls are finally ready to become it.
Prediction: USF wins the 2026 American Conference Championship.
