By By Ken Filler | Tampa Bay Sports Journal
TAMPA — The NFC South may not be the NFL’s best division, but it could be one of its most unpredictable.
Carolina enters the season as the defending champion.
Atlanta has one of the league’s best running backs but another major question at quarterback.
New Orleans believes Tyler Shough can become its long-term answer.
The Buccaneers have committed a franchise-record contract to Baker Mayfield and rebuilt a defense that failed them last season.
All four teams can make a reasonable case for improving on their 2026 record.
From a Tampa Bay perspective, however, there is no reason to dance around the expectations: The Buccaneers should win this division.
They have the NFC South’s best-established quarterback, a talented group of offensive playmakers and a defense that added speed, youth and depth at nearly every level.
After finishing 8-9 and losing the division on a tiebreaker last season, simply remaining competitive will not be enough.
This team was assembled to return to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The division’s most complete team. Projected record: 10-7
Playoff prediction: NFC South champions
Tampa Bay’s season starts with Mayfield. That became real clear when the Buccaneers gave him a three-year, $165 million extension reportedly containing $150 million guaranteed.
Mayfield no longer has to convince the Buccaneers he is their franchise quarterback. They have made that decision.
The money hasn’t changed how Mayfield does business.
“This doesn’t mean I’ve made it,” Mayfield said after signing the deal. “It’s life-changing, but the mentality stays the same.”
That is precisely what the Buccaneers need. They need the competitive, emotional Mayfield who attacks defenses without becoming careless with the football.
The offense will look different without Mike Evans, who signed with San Francisco after spending 12 seasons in Tampa.
You do not replace the greatest offensive player in franchise history.
His departure puts more responsibility on Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and second-year receiver Jalen McMillian
Bucky Irving can be the centerpiece of Zac Robinson’s new offense.
Irving’s quickness, vision, and ability as a receiver make him one of Tampa Bay’s most dangerous weapons.
Kenneth Gainwell gives the Buccaneers a dependable second option, while an offensive line led by Tristan Wirfs should restore the physical running game Tampa displayed in 2024.
That is important because the Buccaneers became too dependent on Mayfield last season.
Robinson’s offense must be more balanced and consistent, particularly in the red zone and late in games.
The larger concern is the defense.
Tampa Bay allowed 411 points in 2025 and struggled to produce consistent pressure or stop quality passing attacks.
General manager Jason Licht responded by adding linebacker Alex Anzalone, bringing back cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and investing in young defenders such as Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter Jr.
A healthy Benjamin Morrison could transform the secondary. Zyon McCollum, Jacob Parrish and Murphy-Bunting give Bowles more coverage flexibility than he had last season.
McCollum described the secondary’s mentality: “A ball in the air belongs to us.”
The talent is there. Now the Buccaneers must turn pressure into sacks, opportunities into turnovers, and fourth-quarter leads into victories.
If the defense rises from poor to average, the Buccaneers should win 10 games. If it becomes a legitimate top-15 unit, this team could win 11 or 12 and become dangerous in January.
Carolina Panthers: Tampa Bay’s biggest threat
Projected record: 9-8
Playoff prediction: Wild-card contender
The Panthers are no longer rebuilding in anonymity. After winning the NFC South and making their first playoff appearance since 2017, Dave Canales’ team enters 2026 expecting to remain in the race.
Bryce Young took an important step last season, completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
He also produced a franchise-record 448-yard game against Atlanta.
Carolina exercised Young’s fifth-year option, but this remains a critical season for the former No. 1 overall pick.
The Panthers need to learn whether he can move beyond a capable starter and become a quarterback who consistently wins games with his performance.
Young has Tetairoa McMillan, the reigning offensive rookie of the year, as his top outside target.
Chuba Hubbard and a returning Jonathon Brooks give Carolina a strong backfield, and first-round tackle Monroe Freeling adds more talent to an improving offensive line.
The defense may determine whether Carolina repeats.
The Panthers added veteran linebacker Bobby Okereke and continued rebuilding a unit that was once among the league’s worst. Canales has not hidden the goal.
“We’re after this division,” he said entering the season.
Carolina is deeper and more confident than it was a year ago, but Tampa Bay still has the edge at quarterback and along the defensive front.
The two meetings between the Buccaneers and Panthers could decide the division.
Atlanta Falcons: Great backfield, uncomfortable quarterback questions. Projected record: 8-9
Playoff prediction: In the race, but falls short
No NFC South team may have a wider range of possible outcomes than Atlanta.
Bijan Robinson is one of the NFL’s best players at any position.
He gives new coach Kevin Stefanski the foundation for a physical, play-action offense.
Kyle Pitts remains a matchup problem when healthy, and Atlanta has enough offensive-line talent to control games on the ground.
The question is who will take advantage of it.
Michael Penix Jr. is returning from another knee injury.
Tua Tagovailoa was signed after Miami released him, but his health and recent performance remain concerns. He threw for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 2025, and it was announced that he will miss the 2026 opener with an oblique issue.
Cooper Rush could also enter the picture. That is a lot of uncertainty at the game’s most important position.
The Falcons can win games by feeding Robinson and playing defense, but it is hard to project them ahead of Tampa Bay or Carolina without knowing what they will get from their quarterback.
Atlanta will be a miserable opponent when its running game is working.
The Falcons can beat anyone in the division.
Over 17 games, however, quarterback instability usually becomes the defining story.
New Orleans Saints: Improving, but not ready yet
Projected record: 7-10
Playoff prediction: Misses playoffs
New Orleans is attempting to move into a new era under Kellen Moore, and there are reasons for optimism.
Tyler Shough showed enough as a rookie to earn the starting job and was named one of the Saints’ captains.
He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions after moving into the lineup during the 2025 season.
The Saints surrounded him with more help. Travis Etienne Jr. gives New Orleans an explosive back, while Chris Olave, first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson, and tight end Noah Fant provide Shough with an intriguing group of targets.
New Orleans also invested in its offensive line by signing guard David Edwards and adding depth in the draft.
The problem is a defense in transition.
Veteran linebacker Demario Davis departed for the Jets, cornerback Alontae Taylor left in free agency, and longtime leaders are nearing the end of their careers.
Chase Young and Kool-Aid McKinstry give the Saints defensive building blocks, but the roster still doesn’t look complete.
New Orleans will be better than many expect, particularly if Shough continues developing. The Saints are probably one year away from seriously threatening for the division.
Final NFC South prediction
Finish. Team. Projected record. Playoff outlook
1. Tampa Bay. 10-7. Division Champs
2. Carolina. 9-8. Wild Card Contender
3. Atlanta. 8-9. Misses Playoffs
4. New Orleans. 7-10. Misses Playoffs
The NFC South should remain competitive into December.
Carolina is good enough to repeat. Atlanta can ride Robinson into the race, and New Orleans can surprise teams.
But the Buccaneers have what the others are still trying to find: stability at quarterback.
Mayfield has been paid like the face of the franchise. The offensive line is talented. Irving can carry the running game.
Godwin, Egbuka and McMillan give the Buccaneers enough receiving talent to survive the end of the Evans era.
It comes down to Bowles’ defense.
If the rebuilt secondary holds up and Bain, Yaya Diaby and the rest of the front generate consistent pressure, the Buccaneers should return to the top of the NFC South.
Anything less than a playoff appearance would be a major disappointment. This roster is too talented, too experienced, and now too expensive to accept another 8-9 season.
The division is there for Tampa Bay to reclaim. Now the Buccaneers have to take it.
